“Trade surpluses will not damage the strong ties between China and ASEAN countries—but shifting blame might,” Professor Zhao warned, urging a fact-based, collaborative approach to regional economic relations.
As a respected scholar in international relations and moderator of a key sub-forum at the event, Professor Zhao expressed sincere hopes for continued friendly relations between China and ASEAN. He elaborates on key issues shaping China–ASEAN ties, including trade dynamics, foreign policy approaches, regional cooperation in science and technology, and advice for the next generation of scholars, offering a timely and nuanced perspective on maintaining constructive engagement.
Q: How can China and ASEAN countries seize opportunities for cooperation in scientific and technological innovation?
Zhao: ASEAN countries show a strong willingness to collaborate with China in developing science and technology. Each side brings distinct strengths. For example, Thailand is a global leader in the medical and pharmaceutical sectors.
Even less technologically advanced ASEAN nations are actively developing strategic industries in high demand across Asia. Since the U.S. imposed its chip blockade during Trump’s first term, Thailand has prioritized joining the Fourth Industrial Revolution, emphasizing digital transformation and the semiconductor industry. During President Xi’s visit to Thailand, the two countries signed 45 cooperative agreements—signaling a promising future for science and technology collaboration between China and ASEAN.
Q: In the U.S.–China tariff war, ASEAN countries have adopted a compromising stance toward the U.S., unlike China’s reciprocal tariff strategy. Why have they taken different approaches?
Zhao: ASEAN nations prioritize “maximizing interests” and “mutual benefit.” Many are small economies heavily reliant on trade surpluses with the U.S. For example, trade with the U.S. accounts for about 30% of Vietnam’s GDP. In this context, compromise becomes a pragmatic choice to safeguard their economic interests.
China’s reciprocal tariffs during Trump’s presidency caught many ASEAN countries off guard. Historically, China had made significant concessions to maintain stable relations. When China adopted a firmer stance, ASEAN countries—expecting to align with China—were unprepared for the shift in China's approach this time.
Q: Why do ASEAN countries have differing attitudes toward China and the U.S.? What stance should China adopt?
Zhao: ASEAN countries often apply double standards. They tend to adopt a conciliatory tone toward U.S. hegemony, while viewing China as a less assertive actor—thus treating it with less deference.
China has reaffirmed its respect for peaceful agreements between Southeast Asian countries and the U.S. However, any arrangement that undermines China’s core interests is unacceptable. Some Southeast Asian nations have yet to fully acknowledge China’s growing strength and evolving diplomatic posture. Challenges to China’s sovereignty cannot be tolerated.
Q: At the Shanghai Forum, professors from Southeast Asia frequently highlighted the idea of “fair trade”. Does this relate to China's trade deficit? Could it affect China–ASEAN relations?
Zhao: It’s crucial to recognize that trade surpluses and deficits do not inherently indicate fairness or unfairness in trade.
This notion of “fairness” often reflects a belief among some ASEAN countries that larger economies should provide greater benefits. Some expect to extract more advantages from China—but this mindset is flawed. For example, Vietnam’s decision to close its border with China in early 2020 nearly triggered a collapse in its own industrial chain.
Focusing solely on bilateral trade balances is misguided. ASEAN’s trade deficit with China stems largely from their import of Chinese goods for reprocessing and export to Western markets, leading to a substantial surplus with the U.S. In today’s interconnected global economy, all nations depend on the smooth operation of transnational supply chains.
As for the trade surplus issue, China has continually made goodwill gestures—such as increasing imports of tropical fruits and other goods from ASEAN—to foster balanced and respectful relations. But we must also ask: What is ASEAN contributing in return?
Q: What advice do you have for young scholars interested in international relations? What research directions should they pursue?
Zhao: First, they must be fully committed and mentally prepared. A career in international relations requires passion and a strong sense of national purpose. I’m fortunate that my ideals have always aligned with my interests.
Second, more attention should be given to our neighboring regions. Young scholars often gravitate toward studying developed countries, especially the U.S., but that is only one piece of the puzzle. What we truly lack is deep expertise in regional studies.
Our understanding of Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia, Central Asia, and South Asia remains insufficient. These areas urgently need dedicated scholars who are willing to engage, and to build connections.
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Writer: YIN Zhenjie
Proofreader: WANG Jingyang
Editor: WANG Mengqi, LI Yijie
